Performance
Performance.
Five strategies running as one portfolio. The blended backtest is up top, each individual strategy underneath, and live results since each went live are at the bottom.
Backtests are historical simulations, clearly labeled. Live numbers are real trades, real fills, no adjustments. We never average the two together.
Backtests · Blended portfolio
All five running together.
Equal-weight 20% each, rebalanced monthly. The curve starts from the first date all five strategies have data (VoltAIc has the latest historical start).
Systems Portfolio — since Jan 25, 2022
Momentum · Monthly Flip · Crisis Hunter · SwingHunter · VoltAIc. 20% each, monthly rebalance.
Backtests · Each strategy
What the backtest showed before each went live.
Five strategies grouped by product. The first three are engines inside TrendLock (a subscriber gets all three bundled together). SwingHunter is its own signal service. VoltAIc is a managed algo on Collective2.
Inside TrendLock — 3 engines bundled
A TrendLock subscription runs all three at once.
TrendLock Momentum — Jan 2, 2020 through Apr 9, 2026
Engine of TrendLock · Weekly momentum rotation
Monthly Flip — Jan 2, 2020 through Apr 9, 2026
Engine of TrendLock · Calendar turn-of-month
Crisis Hunter — Jan 2, 2020 through Apr 9, 2026
Engine of TrendLock · Dip-buyer for VIX panic
Standalone signal service
Sold separately. Email signals, you execute.
SwingHunter — Jan 2, 2020 through Apr 9, 2026
Standalone system · Multi-asset mean reversion
Managed algo — auto-executed on Collective2
Post-Feb 9 portion of the chart is live, not simulated.
VoltAIc — Backtest Jan 25, 2022 → Feb 9, 2026 · Live since
ML regime classifier rotating TQQQ / SQQQ / GLD. Backtest through Feb 9, live via Collective2 after.
Live results · Summary
Since each strategy launched.
Three products you can subscribe to — TrendLock, SwingHunter, and VoltAIc — plus the Systems Portfolio that runs all five strategies together at equal weight.
| Strategy | Live since | Return | Max drawdown | Trades | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TrendLock Signal service · 3 engines bundled | Nov 1, 2025 | +1.5% | -1.8% | 8 | Live |
| SwingHunter Signal service · 23-instrument mean reversion | Jan 1, 2026 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 | Live |
| VoltAIc Managed algo · Auto-executed on Collective2 | Feb 9, 2026 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10 | Live |
| Systems Portfolio 5 strategies at 20% each · monthly rebalance | Nov 1, 2025 | +0.9% | -1.8% | 18 | Live |
How the Portfolio row is computed: TrendLock counts as 60% of the portfolio (three engines × 20%), SwingHunter is 20%, VoltAIc is 20%. The Return column weights each strategy's live return by its allocation. Max DD shows the deepest drawdown of any single component over the shared live period.
Why launch dates differ: TrendLock went live first (November 2025), then SwingHunter (January 2026), then VoltAIc (February 2026). The Portfolio row measures from TrendLock's start, so earlier months weight only the strategies that were live at the time.
Live results · Equity curves
How each strategy has performed since launch.
Each curve starts at 100 on the day that strategy went live. Black line is the strategy; dashed gray is the S&P 500 over the same window.
TrendLock
Since Nov 1, 2025
SwingHunter
Since Jan 1, 2026
VoltAIc
Since Feb 9, 2026
Methodology
How we run backtests.
- Commission
- $0.005 per share, minimum $1 per trade. Matches Interactive Brokers Pro pricing. Applied on entry and exit.
- Slippage
- 0.05% per side, applied to fill price. Reflects realistic execution on liquid US-listed ETFs.
- In-sample vs out-of-sample
- Parameters fit on 2012 through 2019. Out-of-sample period is 2020 forward. The stats shown above are the out-of-sample period. No lookahead.
- Walk-forward
- Strategy rules re-optimized annually on a rolling three-year window, then applied forward for the next year. No curve-fitting across the full out-of-sample period.
- Monte Carlo
- 10,000 trade-order permutations. The max drawdown and CAGR shown are the median outcome, not the best.
- Live execution
- Live numbers are real fills in real accounts, net of commission and slippage. No adjustments. VoltAIc's live record is maintained on Collective2, independent of us.
Risk disclosure
Backtests are historical simulations. They do not represent actual trading and have inherent limitations. They are prepared with the benefit of hindsight. No simulated record can account for all of the risk of trading real money, including the ability to withstand losses and the psychological impact of drawdowns.
Past performance, whether live or backtested, is not indicative of future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You can lose more than your initial investment when using leveraged instruments.
Pollinate Trading is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. The information on this site is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.