Regime-matched momentum with three engines
TrendLock.
Three independent engines running together: sustained momentum, calendar patterns, and crisis dip-buying. Long-biased equity exposure that steps aside when the tape turns hostile.
Cancel anytime · converts to $147/mo on annual if you stay · 30-day money back
The hypothesis
Why this system exists.
Equity markets spend most of their time in one of three regimes that reward different approaches. Sustained trends reward momentum. Predictable calendar flows reward mean-reversion inside known windows. Panics reward dip-buying when breadth capitulates. Running one engine for each, gated by a regime classifier, captures the edge of all three while avoiding the drawdowns of forcing any single approach in the wrong environment.
How it works
Three engines, one regime filter.
Momentum
Captures sustained directional moves. Fires when the regime classifier confirms a trend state — fast SQN above 1.5 and aligned with slow SQN. Holds until the regime shifts or the trailing stop hits.
Monthly Flip
Calendar pattern system. Exploits the documented turn-of-month effect in equity markets. Price-agnostic. Fires on calendar date, exits on calendar date. Small but consistent contributor independent of regime.
Crisis Hunter
Dip-buyer for genuine panic. Activates only when VIX spikes above 30 and market breadth capitulates — fewer than 10% of S&P 500 above the 50-day MA. Built for the tails. Small position, defined risk.
Performance
Live results first. Backtest second. Never mixed.
We show live results first. Backtests tell you what the system should do. Live results tell you what it is doing.
All TrendLock figures assume a standalone TrendLock subscriber, 100% allocation to this system, split 33% across the three engines (Momentum, Monthly Flip, Crisis Hunter).
Since Nov 1, 2025
Real execution. Updated from live trade log.
Jan 2, 2020 — Apr 9, 2026
Historical backtest. See disclaimer below.
Statistics
The numbers in detail.
Risk profile
- Max drawdown
- -22.7%
- Max DD duration
- 301 days
- Worst month
- -12.7%
- Positive months
- 42.2%
Trade characteristics
- Average win
- 0.0%
- Average loss
- 0.0%
- Expectancy (R)
- 0.00
- Best month
- +28.7%
Recent signals
Recent activity.
Latest signals from this system, most recent first. Open positions shown at the top.
| Date | Engine | Dir | Ticker | Entry | Exit | Held | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29 | Momentum | long | BIL | 91.63 | — | Open | Open |
| Feb 27 | Monthly Flip | long | QQQ | 607.29 | 600.38 | 17d | -1.1% |
| Feb 24 | Momentum | long | UWM | 51.97 | 53.21 | 7d | +2.4% |
| Feb 24 | Monthly Flip | long | QQQ | 607.48 | 607.87 | 0d | +0.1% |
| Jan 22 | Monthly Flip | long | QQQ | 616.28 | 601.92 | 25d | -2.3% |
| Jan 18 | Momentum | long | SSO | 59.42 | 59.29 | 14d | -0.2% |
Full trade log available to subscribers in the dashboard.
Pricing
Annual saves $600/yr on TrendLock.
Same signals. Same dashboard. Annual subscribers pay $50 less per month and lock the rate for 12 months. 30-day money back if the system doesn't fit your process. Or start with $1 for 14 days.
30-day money back · Cancel anytime
Common questions
FAQ.
What time do signals arrive?
TrendLock has three engines and each fires on its own cadence. The Momentum engine runs a weekly rotation — signal goes out Sunday evening when the rotation changes. Monthly Flip fires only when its specific calendar window opens, a handful of times per year. Crisis Hunter fires only during genuine VIX plus breadth capitulation — historically 3 to 5 times a decade. You subscribe once and get all three. Most weeks, nothing fires.
How many signals per month?
Varies by regime. Trending markets produce more signals. Choppy markets produce fewer. Average across the backtest: four signals per month. The system does not force trades to justify its own existence.
Do I need specific software?
No. Signals arrive by email. You execute in your own brokerage. Any broker that trades SPY and QQQ works.
Can I combine this with SwingHunter?
Yes. That is the Systems Portfolio at $347/mo. Correlation between the two systems is 0.12, which means they complement each other rather than duplicate.
What is the difference between the three engines?
Momentum fires on confirmed trends and is where most of the return comes from. Monthly Flip is a calendar-based system that runs independent of price action. Crisis Hunter only activates during extreme VIX spikes with breadth capitulation. All three share the same regime filter.