This is where things get interestingFeb 15, 2021
First of all I want to remind you as we come to the end of the month, we will be raising prices for the Trading Lab at the end of the month. Get signed up now and lock in our launch price for ever. Trading is isolating, it's hard to find a good group of like minded traders who are actually trading the markets successfully and not gambling on headlines or fear, that is what we have in the Lab.
Ok on to the markets...
Earlier this week I mentioned that I expected to see the $NQ close the month flat around the 11,600 to 11,700 level. That still is a possibility, but today we find ourselves on the doorstep of 12,000.
Why is this level so significant?
- It is rare that we find ourselves so many stand deviations above the mean.
- Not rare, is that we have completed a measured move higher from the February highs to the March lows
- Historically closing the month >3 standard deviations higher from the open of the month indicates a larger down move the following month.
And yes, this is what every perma-bear fear mongerer on Twitter has been writing about since the March bottom (of 2009), day after day, week after week.
But Chris, you are the perma-bull who bought dip after dip, throwing caution to the wind and making fun of perma-bears, why are you suddenly jumping on the fear mongering bear bandwagon?
I'm also the market regime guy.
And we currently find ourselves in the Bull Volatile market regime via the SQN indicator, though the ATR is stating otherwise.
What we know about the Bull Volatile market regime is that it doesn't actually indicate a market top, but it IS a prerequisite to a major market top.
In the trading lab we are keeping a close eye on how $NQ closes the month and we are looking to hedge our long positions or lighten exposure.
This is where things get interesting.
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