Backtesting Mastery

backtesting bear markets market regime strategy Feb 15, 2021

I hope you have been benefiting from these posts. 

I realize that for many traders, they've never experienced a highly volatile bear market like this. Well no one has experienced it like this, just like any other bear market, this one is different.

However there are characteristics of all bear markets that are the same. That means that there are systems to trade and generate income during these markets, just like there are ways in roaring bull markets. 

Ironically my trading has grinding nearly to a halt during this period. 

For most traders, who still have their accounts and didn't completely blow up already, the volatility is very enticing.

These massive intraday swings are something we haven't seen before, and for traders who don't understand position sizing, they see 5% even 10% intraday moves, not realizing that they could make big money with 0.5% or 1% if they had the appropriate strategy and more importantly sized positions correctly. 

Do you know how your strategy performs in all 5 market regimes

  • Bull Volatile
  • Bull Quiet
  • Neutral
  • Bear Quiet
  • Bear Volatile

For example FVBO has a greater than 70% win rate with an average win of 1.2R in Bull Quiet and Neutral markets, but performance drops in Bull Volatile and Bear Volatile.

And as for the VBO strategy, it pretty much only works in Bull and Bear Volatile, but substantially better in Bear Volatile regimes. 

How do I know this, how can I be so confident of it?

Because I've put in the hard work of manually backtesting these strategies in all the different market regimes, across all different assets and time frames. 

I know people don't know what they don't know so I hope the things I do help give you some clarity or insights and be extremely useful. 

I was there before, I was struggling to be consistent. I have been there one good trade, three bad trades, then frustration only to return with half the position size only to go a 4 trade win streak, size up again, and you guessed it, give it all back and then some. 

This is the time to do the work, take control of your trading. 

So I'm going to share with you FOR FREE my backtesting spreadsheet template.

Simply click on the link, then click "File" and "Make A Copy" and save it to your Free Google Drive If you want it in Excel, you can export to Excel from the same Google Sheet. I left a random backtest in there to help guide you through it. 

This should help you get started if you are interested in going the long route and figuring it out as you go. 

If you really want to turn pro and figure out how to categorize markets, use proper position sizing, know when to take profits or add to your positions, how to properly enter trade and double that win rate I want to help you. 


Systems Mastery Course

I want nothing but the best for you, I want you to take this information and take control of your trading once and for all.

Then I want you to email and say, "I took the course, I backtested a bunch and discovered an amazing strategy that I've been crushing!"

That's what I want. 


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